Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of standard functions, a process that requires expert knowledge, results in limited adaptivity to data, and imposes strong assumptions on the hypothesis space. We study Empirical GPs, a principled framework for constructing flexible, data-driven GP priors that overcome these limitations. Rather than relying on standard parametric kernels, we estimate the mean and covariance functions empirically from a corpus of historical observations, enabling the prior to reflect rich, non-trivial covariance structures present in the data. Theoretically, we show that the resulting model converges to the GP that is closest (in KL-divergence sense) to the real data generating process. Practically, we formulate the problem of learning the GP prior from independent datasets as likelihood estimation and derive an Expectation-Maximization algorithm with closed-form updates, allowing the model handle heterogeneous observation locations across datasets. We demonstrate that Empirical GPs achieve competitive performance on learning curve extrapolation and time series forecasting benchmarks.

Accurate prediction of contagious disease outbreaks is vital for informed decision-making. Our study addresses the gap between machine learning algorithms and their epidemiological applications, noting that methods optimal for benchmark datasets often underperform with real-world data due to difficulties in incorporating mobility information. We adopt a two-phase approach: first, assessing the significance of mobility data through a pilot study, then evaluating the impact of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) on a transformer backbone. Our findings reveal that while mobility data and GCN modules do not significantly enhance forecasting performance, the inclusion of mortality and hospitalization data markedly improves model accuracy. Additionally, a comparative analysis between GCN-derived spatial maps and lockdown orders suggests a notable correlation, highlighting the potential of spatial maps as sensitive indicators for mobility. Our research offers a novel perspective on mobility representation in predictive modeling for contagious diseases, empowering decision-makers to better prepare for future outbreaks.

I) Introduction Do robots vote? Do machines make decisions instead of us? No, (at least not yet), but this is something that could happen . At the most important level, that of the electoral process, it is noted that it is not determined by the AI, but it is greatly impacted by its multiple applications . New types of online campaigns, driven by AI applications, are replacing traditional ones. The potential for manipulating voters and indirectly influencing the electoral outcome should not be underestimated. Certainly, instances of voter manipulation are not absent from traditional political campaigns, with the only difference being that digital manipulation is often carried out without our knowledge, e.g. by monitoring our behavior on social media. Nevertheless, we should not overlook the positive impact that AI has in the upgrading of democratic institutions by providing a forum for participation in decision - making . In this context, as a first step, we look into the potential jeopardization of democratic processes posed by the use of AI tools. Secondly, we consider the possibility of strengthening democratic processes by using AI, as well as the democratization of AI itself through the possibilities it offers. And thirdly, the impact of AI on the representative system is also discussed. The paper is concluded with recommendations and conclusions. II) Risks posed for democracy Misuse of AI tools can lead to the undermining of democratic political processes or the manipulation of individuals through specific targeting, which will destabilize democracy.

The increasing sizes of large language models (LLMs) result in significant computational overhead and memory usage when adapting these models to specific tasks or domains. Various parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods have been devised to mitigate these challenges by training a small set of parameters for the task-specific updates of the model weights. Among PEFT methods, LoRA stands out for its simplicity and efficiency, inspiring the development of a series of variants. However, LoRA and its successors disregard the knowledge that is noisy or irrelevant to the targeted task, detrimentally impacting model performance and leading to suboptimality. To address this limitation, we introduce Knowledge-aware Singular-value Adaptation (KaSA), a PEFT method that leverages singular value decomposition (SVD) with knowledge-aware singular values to dynamically activate knowledge based on its relevance to the task at hand. We conduct extensive experiments across a range of LLMs on tasks spanning natural language understanding (NLU), generation (NLG), instruction following, and commonsense reasoning. The experimental results demonstrate that KaSA consistently outperforms FFT and 14 popular PEFT baselines across 16 benchmarks and 4 synthetic datasets, underscoring our method's efficacy and adaptability. The source code of our method is available at https://github.com/juyongjiang/KaSA.

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

Comprehensive, precision-laser surveys, conducted via aircraft over the tiny Pacific island of Temwen, have revealed just how advanced its lost city Nan Madol once was. Sometimes called'the Venice of the Pacific,' this megalithic stone city has drawn comparisons to mythic Atlantis -- and even inspired horror writer H.P. Lovecraft, who drew upon news of the site's 1928 discovery as he wrote'The Call of Cthulhu.' But now scores of researchers are in a race to uncover the full extent of Nan Madol's ruins as they undertake plans to preserve the city as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Their aerial surveys, conducted via LiDAR or'Light Detection and Ranging' laser-mapping, has uncovered'a sophisticated and extensive landscape of cultivation features hidden under Temwen Island's vegetation.' The discovery has promised to rewrite the history of many Pacific Island cultures, showing that societies once presumed to have relied on subsistence fishing and natural tropical bounty, were in fact engaged in sophisticated agricultural planning.

In the digital era, blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have transformed financial and decentralized systems. However, existing research often neglects the spatiotemporal variations in public sentiment toward these technologies, limiting macro-level insights into their global impact. This study leverages Twitter data to explore public attention and sentiment across 150 countries, analyzing over 150 million geotagged tweets from 2012 to 2022. Sentiment scores were derived using a BERT-based multilingual sentiment model trained on 7.4 billion tweets. The analysis integrates global cryptocurrency regulations and economic indicators from the World Development Indicators database. Results reveal significant global sentiment variations influenced by economic factors, with more developed nations engaging more in discussions, while less developed countries show higher sentiment levels. Geographically weighted regression indicates that GDP-tweet engagement correlation intensifies following Bitcoin price surges. Topic modeling shows that countries within similar economic clusters share discussion trends, while different clusters focus on distinct topics. This study highlights global disparities in sentiment toward decentralized finance, shaped by economic and regional factors, with implications for poverty alleviation, cryptocurrency crime, and sustainable development. The dataset and code are publicly available on GitHub.

The widespread adoption of cloud-based proprietary large language models (LLMs) has introduced significant challenges, including operational dependencies, privacy concerns, and the necessity of continuous internet connectivity. In this work, we introduce an LLMOps pipeline, "LlamaDuo", for the seamless migration of knowledge and abilities from service-oriented LLMs to smaller, locally manageable models. This pipeline is crucial for ensuring service continuity in the presence of operational failures, strict privacy policies, or offline requirements. Our LlamaDuo involves fine-tuning a small language model against the service LLM using a synthetic dataset generated by the latter. If the performance of the fine-tuned model falls short of expectations, it is enhanced by further fine-tuning with additional similar data created by the service LLM. This iterative process guarantees that the smaller model can eventually match or even surpass the service LLM's capabilities in specific downstream tasks, offering a practical and scalable solution for managing AI deployments in constrained environments. Extensive experiments with leading-edge LLMs are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness, adaptability, and affordability of LlamaDuo across various downstream tasks.

This study explores text-to-SQL parsing by leveraging the powerful reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Despite recent advancements, existing LLM-based methods have not adequately addressed scalability, leading to inefficiencies when processing wide tables. Furthermore, current interaction-based approaches either lack a step-by-step, interpretable SQL generation process or fail to provide an efficient and universally applicable interaction design. To address these challenges, we introduce Interactive-T2S, a framework that generates SQL queries through direct interactions with databases. This framework includes four general tools that facilitate proactive and efficient information retrieval by the LLM. Additionally, we have developed detailed exemplars to demonstrate the step-wise reasoning processes within our framework. Our experiments on the BIRD-Dev dataset, employing a setting without oracle knowledge, reveal that our method achieves state-of-the-art results with only two exemplars, underscoring the effectiveness and robustness of our framework.

Annotation and classification of legal text are central components of empirical legal research. Traditionally, these tasks are often delegated to trained research assistants. Motivated by the advances in language modeling, empirical legal scholars are increasingly turning to prompting commercial models, hoping that it will alleviate the significant cost of human annotation. Despite growing use, our understanding of how to best utilize large language models for legal tasks remains limited. We conduct a comprehensive study of 260 legal text classification tasks, nearly all new to the machine learning community. Starting from GPT-4 as a baseline, we show that it has non-trivial but highly varied zero-shot accuracy, often exhibiting performance that may be insufficient for legal work. We then demonstrate that a lightly fine-tuned Llama 3 model vastly outperforms GPT-4 on almost all tasks, typically by double-digit percentage points. We find that larger models respond better to fine-tuning than smaller models. A few tens to hundreds of examples suffice to achieve high classification accuracy. Notably, we can fine-tune a single model on all 260 tasks simultaneously at a small loss in accuracy relative to having a separate model for each task. Our work points to a viable alternative to the predominant practice of prompting commercial models. For concrete legal tasks with some available labeled data, researchers are better off using a fine-tuned open-source model.